Mexico’s inter-campaign period has reached its final stage. To the presidential candidates already confirmed Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Ricardo Anaya and José Antonio Meade is added, for now, Margarita Zavala. It will be the first time that an independent candidate battles for the presidency thanks to the political reform of 2014. After obtaining the 866.593 signatures needed to be presented, the former PAN deputy will be the only candidate without party. The provisional exclusion of Jaime Rodríguez Calderón, el Bronco, and Armando Ríos Píter, entails the appearance of opposed emotions in the independent pre-candidates before the decision of the INE (National Electoral Institute).
The INE is the organism that is responsible for everything related to the legality of the electoral process in an impartial manner. On this occasion, the candidates had to collect the signatures through a mobile app. The citizens had to take out their voter card to have a picture taken with the app with facial recognition and extracted the data (mainly the person’s name and identification number). The three teams reported that the mobile application had many problems but finally they ended up using it.
This organismo is now in the spotlight of many political actors who question its functioning and the impartiality of its advisors. On March 29th, one day before the electoral campaign begins, the INE must finally resolve whether the two candidates who have the right to a hearing before going to court are left out of the electoral competition.
Margarita Zavala: acceptance for the goal achieved
Margarita Zavala, who ran as an independent candidate after breaking with the PAN, has achieved her goal. The 870,168 valid supports catapult her to fight for the presidency of Mexico. The polls give her 5% of the votes, but she aims to improve the polls once the campaign starts. In the profile photo of Facebook shows ACCEPTANCE for having overcome the first obstacle to appear in the elections. The mixture between HAPPINESS and FEAR are the reflection of its political situation: she will be able to fight with its ex-partners of PAN ranks, although, at the same time, its victory options are very low.
Armando Ríos Píter: conflicting emotions in his answer to the INE
Armando Ríos Píter, who was also left out of the ballot a priori as a result of the INE verdict of last Friday, March 16th, launched a video to networks and media, giving his opinion about it and these were his emotions:
Ríos Píter begins his speech with a positive emotional state. He shows ECSTASY, correctly transmitting that the underlying problem was not that the precandidates and their teams of operators and auxiliaries cheated, but that the INE did not give a copy or support to what the pre-candidates sent through the app of Apoyo Ciudadano of the INE. His initial conviction is such that he arrives to register ARROGANCE, PRIDE and SERENITY with an ironic smile that leads him to be unconcerned about what happened.
When he explains the mechanism of the INE in the process of collecting signatures, he registers PERPLEXITY, CONMOTION, AFFLICTION and CONSTERNATION when he says “only the INE can say what is valid and what is not valid”.
The complaint made by the independent candidate is that the verdict of the INE was leaked to the media before the latter went out in a press conference to publicize the results of the signature reviews made by INE personnel. Ríos Píter even dares to say that there is a “black hand” on Calderón’s part (given that the only one who passed the review victorious was the former first lady and now the first independent candidate, Margarita Zavala, Calderón’s wife). This is the only accusation of the whole video that Ríos Píter defends little congruent to judge by his expressions of GUILT and FEAR. Maybe because weeks before it was commented in the media that the three independent candidates (Margarita, Armando and Jaime) could be negotiating a single independent candidacy headed by one of them three.
Ríos Píter ends up sowing the doubt of whether the leaks could be a sign of an unfair treatment towards his candidacy to favour others and this is also transmitted with his face, with his DISTRUST. Likewise, he urges the INE to “go out and face this” with IRRITATION, but also OPTIMISM.
In short, Ríos Píter apparently content himself with reporting irregularities in the process, accusing the INE and other political figures of these results and he does so with total congruence with his emotions that do not denote a great anger about his fall in regard to his figure as a potential candidate for the presidency of Mexico. The truth is that to date he has not yet made use of his right to a hearing to review the signatures that invalidated him.
Jaime Rodríguez Calderón, el Bronco: rejection and abhorrence before the INE verdict
The independent pre-candidate Jaime Rodríguez Calderón, el Bronco, launched a video to networks and media to let him know his position on the INE verdict.
His speech begins in a calm manner showing that the verdict of not having obtained sufficient signatures to contest the presidency of the Republic in 2018, only confirms that Mexico needs to wake up and be more “bronco” as he himself says in juxtaposition to “the mansitos” as he calls those citizens who do not support him.
His emotional state is REJECTION, AVERSION and DISCOMFORT with respect to the party system to which he attributes the INE verdict, suggesting that his performance is not as impartial as it should be. In fact it he says that the democracy of Mexico today depends on the National Electoral Institute, by its initials INE, with which it makes the word game of calling it “INE-xistente (non-existent), INE-quitativo (unfair), and INE-pt” during which it returns to register REJECT, in congruence with his speech.
When he talks about the collection of signatures he registers CONFIDENCE, at the same time that he also shows DISCONTENT and ABHORRENCE when he explains that the INE daily notified them of the validated and invalidated signatures and questions that those numbers dont coincide with the second revision made by the INE, which has as result the verdict of Friday, March 16th. All to conclude by saying that the INE admits that “its own validation is not valid”.
El Bronco advances its speech by thanking the INE with TRUST mixed with ABHORRENCE, since it strategically uses the verdict that it repudiates with the confidence that this will serve to take more strength in its struggle to become an independent presidential candidate. The DISGUST towards the parties that he always verbalizes in his speeches is perfectly appreciated in this analysis.
Jaime Rodríguez intends to finish his speech with a message of encouragement for his candidacy. However, at this point his emotions are not so congruent with his speech, since he does not manage to change his emotional state regarding his REJECTION when he speaks about the INE, showing that the verdict affects him very negatively because he really was very close to being inside from the ballot, to just over 31,000 signatures.
What is paradoxical is his TRUST when he predicts that “this will be resolved in the Electoral Tribunal”, perhaps because of his security regarding the validity of the signatures given and in turn showing that he still has some certainty in the Mexican political system. Feel SATISFACTION by attributing to that body that “there they will do justice to the citizen”.
Just as Rios Píter no longer talks about appearing on the ballot, el Bronco wants to make it clear that for him it is a fact and returns to register REPULSION, ABHORRENCE and DISGUST when he says “we are going to win the parties”.
Although his face is UNCOMFORTABLE he wants to close with an ironic message thanking the INE for making him “the best campaign without spending a single peso of the people”. It also ends by informing that they will use their right to a hearing with INTRIGUE, which is consistent since they do not trust to be on the ballot after the hearing until the matter ends in court.
In the end, he closes with PRIDE saying that “they didn’t release the tiger, they woke up to the bronco Mexico”, which is already becoming his campaign motto.
Many uncertainties awaiting the final decision of the INE
The INE will have the word when deciding whether to finally validate the two independent candidacies that, for now, have been excluded from the presidential race. In view of the heterogeneous mixture of emotions expressed by the independent leaders, it is corroborated that the end of the inter-campaign period will be agitated. The doubts that surround the procedure of collecting signatures, as well as the uncertainty about how and with what candidates the electoral campaign will take place, seem to indicate an open political scenario. Therefore, we will closely follow the news and news that appear week after week and that may allow us to make a significant change in the current political dynamics. From March 30th begins the campaign: we will continue reporting.