Deduced results from Basque and Galician elections have not brought big surprises. But they have been erected as an experiment for all parties facing the national political deadlock that Spain is suffering.
At Galicia, as it was predicted, Alberto Núñez Feijóo revalidated his absolute majority. Feijóo seems to be emerging as Rajoy’s successor at Partido Popular. Besides this victory gives air on Mariano Rajoy. Strength of PP is indisputable, something that can be decisive for a probable third national elections. However, Núñez Feijóo was INDIFFERENT to this overwhelming victory in Galicia. It was not an unexpected or surprising result.
Surprise in the Galician elections has been in the sorpasso. It did not happen at the national level, but at Galicia, En Marea has surpassed in votes to PSOE. Pedro Sánchez‘s future is increasingly uncertain. PSOE sinks and therefore, this morning he decided to propose his party holding primaries this October. Sánchez knows the splits in his party. And these election results have not helped.
At Basque Country there have been no surprises. PNV won but it will have to agree. Now they have to decide whether PSOE, as it appears, or PP. Again PSOE has seen how the left has surpassed it both EH Bildu as Podemos. Another bump for Sánchez. Iñigo Urkullu showed PRIDE after the victory of PNV. The independence leader has not achieved absolute majority but he has improved his results.
What affect Basque and Galician elections to national politics?
Although it is difficult and unwise to extrapolate these results to a possible third elections at Spain, it is inevitable. And even the parties themselves have done it. The victory clearly would be for PP, which is expected to improve its results to those of 26J, which reaffirms the Galician abrupt victory. Mariano Rajoy is secure and confident and Núñez Feijóo’s indifference to his victory says that security.
For its part, PSOE is in a tense moment. Internally very divided, Sánchez has not got many choices. Therefore, this morning announced his intention to hold primaries in the Socialist Party that same October. Sánchez is aware of the confrontations and the hostile climate that exists at PSOE. And the results of the regional elections on Sunday have done nothing but intensify the situation. PSOE is at a critical moment. And third elections, seems to still be a major setback.
Podemos, however, has grown in both autonomies. Pablo Iglesias was satisfied in his Twitter account. En Marea has declared itself as the second political force at Galicia, surpassing PSOE. It was something that Podemos expected in 26J elections and did not happen. Who knows if this could not happen at the state level if third elections occur? Also at Basque Country they have obtained good results, higher than PSOE and PP.
Cross has been for Ciudadanos. Albert Rivera‘s party expected to give the final jump outside Catalonia policy, but could not be so. Zero deputies both in Galicia and Basque Country. Ciudadanos has lost some of its spark, which perhaps also will impact at the national level.
Basque and Galician elections, far from being a scene that could unlock the Spanish situation, has made the third elections shadow rise, and more and more strongly at Spain.