26J polls are wrong, not emotions

Polls have failed again. As happened in Argentine elections of 2015 that they did not predict a clear victory of Mauricio Macri or last week, polls at Brexit referendum which gave the victory to ‘Remain, none of the polls that came out weeks before 26J election indicated the scene that Spain lived last night. It was not predicted  victory of the Popular Party with this growth in both votes and seats, and it has not established the ‘sorpasso’ of Podemos to PSOE. 26J polls are wrong, not emotions so it is time to use other techniques that can predict the behavior of future voters because it is clear that the polls are no longer reliable.

From Emotion Research Lab, with the technique of facial emotion recognition, last week we measure the emotions aroused by the electoral commercials of the four main parties and discovered that PP commercial was the one that generates more engagement, so it seemed obvious that the party was to bring many votes. Unidos Podemos commercial was the most satisfying, but as it was noted, this has not meant that pleased the coalition in the same way. Spain is a country with more people in adulthood than young people, and according to the analysis of Emotion Research Lab, this sector of the population felt more satisfied with the PP commercial, another cause of the great victory of the party led by Mariano Rajoy.

26J polls are wrong, not emotions

Mariano Rajoy’s delight

With a much wider victory than even the members of Popular Party expected last night Mariano Rajoy looked out the balcony of the party headquarters in Génova street of Madrid surrounded by the top brass of the party and his wife, to give an informal and relaxed speech. Acting President of Spain showed WONDER and DELIGHT in his speech. He was surprised to have won the elections with a better than last 20D elections results, when all polls predicted a fall of PP results. When he address a few words to all Spaniards and argued that he wants to “be useful to 100 % of the Spaniards”, his levels of engagement and satisfaction soared thanks to the ECSTASY and DELIGHT shown, both those who voted them as those who chose other political forces.

Astonishment of Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias

Pedro Sanchez’s situation was very different. There was a bittersweet atmosphere at the headquarters of Ferraz. They had avoided the dreaded ‘Sorpasso’ predicted by all but along the way they had left five seats and thus the PSOE received the worst result in its history. The socialist leader conveyed ANGER and ASTONISHMENT when talking about how all surveys relegated them to a third place in both votes and seats, behind Podemos, which reduced their levels of self-control and hinted PANIC in his words because of would it happened if this had happened. Pedro Sánchez went straight to Pablo Iglesias to accusing him of wanting to destroy the Socialist Party and again urge him to think again to vote for a possible future investiture of Sánchez and thus overthrow the PP; moments where SURPRISE and ANXIETY  in his speech are consistent with the situation in which he finds both internally by doubts about his person between the barons of his party, as in the situation that the Spaniards today are behind these new elections. Sánchez showed PERPLEXED, like most Spaniards were fixed in the polls, with the “improvement of the election results on the right”.

Unidos Podemos seemed to reach these elections stronger than ever. After joining with Izquierda Unida we all spoke of ‘sorpasso’. This word was heard everywhere and, although cautious, even coalition leaders believed in it. However, election night position them again, with less votes and the same seats than the 20D, in the third position. After Garzón and Errejón, Pablo Iglesias appeared before the press surrounded by the best known faces of his party, whose sad faces said it all. Unidos Podemos leader showed ASTONISHMENT throughout his speech, a fully coherent with the confusion that suffered in the ranks of his party because as he admitted they had “different expectations”. ANXIETY transmitted to speak of the “present”, unsettled to the country with these results, so Iglesias’ speech was filled with consistency.

Albert Rivera’s rage

Ciudadanos has been one of the big losers of this repetition of elections. The transfer of votes of Ciudadanos for PP because of the campaign Rajoy did about helful vote, it has paid off and Ciudadanos has left eight seats along the way. Albert Rivera appeared in Madrid in a tough speech against the other parties for which, according to him, no pact has been reached. RAGE, DISAPPOINTMENT and OUTRAGE showing speaking on this issue was consistent with his message but Rivera transmitted low levels of security and self impairing the serenity of his speech and showed him nervous. It is notable HATE transmitted naming Popular Party, which Rivera has always agreed to support if Mariano Rajoy did not was the leader of the. Ciudadanos’ leader also presented RAGE, IRRITATION and DISSAPOINTMENT when talking about the willingness of Ciudadanos to be on the negotiating table; however, the orange party is no longer a key player in the negotiations, and this arouses anger of their leader. Despite being in DISAGREEMENT, Albert Rivera said that if Ciudadanos should be in the opposition, it will be.

After these new elections, two things have become clear. Spanish panorama returns to be baffling and there not seems to be a clear way for the formation of government and polls are no longer reliable. New techniques such as those here developed, must make their way and enter safely on politics in order to understand the behavior of voters at the polls, which from Emotion Research Lab will continue trying to predict it.